Case-Shiller Composite-20 vs. Portland

Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Indices were recently published for February 09 housing sales.  It’s too bad they can’t crunch these numbers quicker, as I’d really like to compare this data to RMLS stats in the same month.  Oh well.

This month I was interested to see how the Case-Shiller index for Portland stacks up against that of its Composite-20 city index (made up of Phoenix, LA, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Washington DC, Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Minneapolis, Charlotte, Las Vegas, NY, Cleveland, Portland, Dallas, and Seattle).  I’m interested in seeing patterns that may help me to project how our market will perform in the coming months and years.

The Composite-20 index has been published since mid-2000, starting at its baseline value of 100.  This just happened to coincide with Portland’s index which read 100 at that time.  So I’ve charted these two indices together since that point:

Table I. Case Schiller Index - Pdx vs. Composite 20

What struck me first about the results is that Portland was an under-performing city compared with the rest.  The 20-city average sales index quickly outgrew Portland, even amidst the recession of 2001-2003.  It wasn’t until March 2008, well into our current recession, that Portland started outperforming the 20-city composite index. 

The next thing I noticed among the trend lines is the timing of their peak points.  The Composite 20 peaked in July 06, a full year ahead of Portland’s peak in August 07.  This can be an important clue in predicting when and how Portland will experience it’s housing recovery.  We’ll just need to continue watching and tracking these indexes against one another.

To summarize, we can see that Portland’s housing bubble was tempered compared to that of our nation’s other top metropolitan cities.  Our sales prices grew at a more moderate clip, peaking at a point both lower and later than other cities.  So will Portland bottom out a lower and later point as well?  The trend lines would indicate so.  But then again, Portland continues to be named by top media firms as one of the most popular places to live.  Forbes Magazine most recently named Portland one of the Best Cities to Live on $500,000: http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/12/cities-executives-ten-lifestyle-real-estate_0212_cities.html.  Could Portland’s lifestyle popularity cause us to remain in the lead of the 20-city composite index, or is our current top position just an overlap of timing?  Check back with Portland Community Realty each month as we explore this question together.

Mother’s Day Brainstorm

Mother’s Day is in a week, and about a half hour ago I had no idea what I was going to do about it.  First step was to think back over the year and reflect on what I need to make amends for - umm, a lot.  It was a really rough year!

It’s going to take that extra-special something to start righting the ship, to earn back the old glimmer of pride in her eyes…Yet, my pocketbook is slim these days, so it has to be something either experiential or inexpensive.

So here are my initial thoughts -

Lunch at either Mother’s Bistro & Bar or The Veritable Quandary - I’m thinking the VQ, because of its wonderful garden patio seating and mouth-watering food.  Mother’s Bistro also has fine food, and I love the French Deco look and feel, but it will likely be too packed to really enjoy it.

Stroll through local gardens – what a better way to relax together in the serenity of one of Portland’s many garden attractions?  I’m thinking either Leach Botanical Gardens, Portland Japanese Gardens, or the Portland Chinese Gardens.  Normally, I would choose either Leach or the Japanese Gardens.  I have an affinity for native plants (Leach) and moss (Japanese).  But for Mother’s Day, the Chinese Gardens appeal most because of their tea room.  When I was there not too long ago, it was so fun to watch people sip tea and have lunch while overlooking the gardens.  I think my mom would really enjoy this special treat. 

Tea at Portland Chinese Gardens

Now, what if my mom can’t get away for a special trip up to Portland?  Then I’ll need to buy her a gift, and pronto.  It must be something she can use up – she’s at the age where she wants to free herself from Stuff.  I can’t blame her – she’s looking to finally retire, and set off on some traveling adventures around the state – hmmm, that gives me an idea.  A guide to special adventures around the state, geared for comfort traveling – something like Pacific Northwest Camping Destinations. 

Other gift ideas that I think any mom would really appreciate include a Pendleton Blanket (Pendleton, OR), a Queen Bee Creations (our very own Portland) bag or tote, some really good organic coffee from Cafe Mam (Eugene-based), or some natural lotions or salves with essential oils, like beecrowbee (Joseph).

This was a good brainstorm for me, and I now I can put plans and ideas into action.  What are your plans for Mother’s Day?  Make it a great one!

Community Dialogue Series under way

Portland’s Office of Neighborhood Involvement (ONI) is sponsoring a community dialogue series relating to gentrification and change within our communities.  The series is entitled “Polarized or Powerful?  Now We’re Talking”, with it’s next discussion coming up April 30th.  The series will run through June.

Thursday, April 30

6:30 – 8:30 PM

St. Andrews Community Center

806 NE Alberta and 8th Ave.

For questions or to RSVP, call 503 823-4112 or email judith.mowry@ci.portland.or.us

Portland hosts foreclosure prevention event

A number of housing groups are coming together May 2 to educate people about their options to prevent foreclosure.  It’s called the Homeownership Preservation Event, and it’s free.  For location and details, visit http://www.dfcs.oregon.gov/HOPE.html.  Hope to see you there.

Portland’s Housing Bubble Deflated

The latest RMLS Market Action Report for March 2009 was just released, and in comparison with the latest Case-Schiller Index for January 09, it appears that Portland’s housing bubble has finally deflated. 

Let’s start with the Case-Schiller index for Portland, which is charted as Table 1 below from it’s beginning in 1987 to the latest data as of January 09.  Looking at this picture, we can clearly see the bubble beginning to form in early 2004.  I’ve added the trend line in pale orange to indicate what normal appreciation would have looked like, according to historic trends in appreciation.  You will see that as of January 09, the Case-Schiller index for the Portland Metro region has decreased nearly to the point of intersecting the appreciation trend line.  I’ve drawn a second line, the horizontal one in blue, where the Case-Schiller index should stand upon full deflation of the housing bubble.  I’ve estimated this at between 147-149, which equates to a median housing value in Portland of around $247-251,000.

Table 1. Case-Schiller Index for Portland Metro

Now that we have RMLS median value data as of March 2009, we can see whether we’ve now bridged the gap since January.  Below is the median values for Portland Metro area, charted as Table 2. 

Table 2. RMLS median values for Portland Metro

As of March, the median value of a home in the Portland Metro area was $246,400.  This figure, when placed in the context of the Case-Schiller trend line, suggests that the Portland market has worked off its inflated home values, and we are now at a stabilization point in the market in terms of values.

If you’d like further information, or to buy or sell in Portland, contact Kristina Lake, licensed Realtor in Oregon, at 503-789-7544.